Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 23.880208 28.578805 33.737496 39.792766 46.675664 54.225910 63.103439
2025-07-20 17.366955 23.637877 31.204606 40.878539 52.780061 66.802671 84.421312
2025-07-27 13.797540 20.793129 29.872326 42.238095 58.334256 78.256379 104.422730
2025-08-03 11.295907 18.620591 28.743170 43.277367 63.081167 88.564773 123.203562
2025-08-10 8.990707 16.187765 26.754929 42.696384 65.343729 95.517844 137.785922
2025-08-17 7.496100 14.633437 25.699205 43.130966 68.796232 104.004793 154.568570
2025-08-24 6.182899 13.090484 24.390127 42.946204 71.201725 111.026808 169.536896
2025-08-31 4.897325 11.318733 22.437019 41.496841 71.525259 115.005837 180.332719
2025-09-07 4.217367 10.503959 21.918660 42.186265 75.002936 123.545554 197.766457
2025-09-14 3.421485 9.285724 20.519319 41.252825 75.833613 128.166013 209.678284
2025-09-21 3.013360 8.780242 20.318384 42.280007 79.768724 137.511429 228.736734
2025-09-28 2.332491 7.501782 18.475443 40.237793 78.533599 138.882628 235.978405
2025-10-05 2.054259 7.147367 18.470092 41.638426 83.349162 150.202001 259.210267
2025-10-12 1.775205 6.723603 18.275387 42.692684 87.690235 161.058296 282.308958
2025-10-19 1.562523 6.415895 18.273895 44.094362 92.690777 173.149906 307.714140
2025-10-26 1.358162 6.067601 18.123069 45.169077 97.146826 184.509488 332.329257
2025-11-02 1.091668 5.429371 17.195191 44.568074 98.509235 190.807089 349.133531
2025-11-09 0.922124 5.045055 16.803929 45.017616 101.794108 200.392661 371.445183
2025-11-16 0.753353 4.589402 16.150411 44.826497 103.834152 207.917147 390.625709
2025-11-23 0.570106 3.977934 14.966032 43.327064 103.240285 210.859921 402.373382
2025-11-30 0.486542 3.747676 14.777221 44.040351 106.978612 221.431206 426.980864
2025-12-07 0.374408 3.311293 13.908869 43.074581 107.297518 225.969202 441.637048
2025-12-14 0.325632 3.170619 13.895681 44.137331 111.763563 238.028091 469.256823